Statistics indicate continued growth

The lead story in the January 2020 edition of the Anglican Journal read, “Gone by 2040?” Archbishop Linda Nicholls, then Primate of the Anglican Church of Canada, lamented, “If people are not coming to the church and finding a place of hope and good news, then we have to ask, ‘How are we presenting that hope and good news to this current generation and time? And what might need to be tried?’”

Certainly, pre-pandemic trends indicated that church attendance was declining by about 2.5 per cent nationally, with higher numbers reported in some dioceses. The story was fodder for church-focused blogs and online chat groups, as various opinions focused on the imminent collapse of the Anglican Church in Canada. The persistent sentiment was disheartening for those of us who commit our professional lives to the service of God’s Church.

In the Diocese of Toronto, however, statistics from the annual parish returns of 2023 and 2024 indicate a sharp increase in both Sunday attendance and the number of donors to the Church. This is a remarkable result, owed in large part to our response to the pandemic. From its onset, many parishes pivoted to worship services on Zoom, Facebook or YouTube when corporate gatherings became impossible. In terms of using technology, we accomplished in a fortnight what probably would not have happened in a decade under normal conditions. With the support of staff and volunteers from the Congregational Development department, grants, and an overall enthusiasm to connect with housebound Anglicans, the Church embarked on a new chapter in its worship ministry.

In the 2024 returns, 62 per cent of parishes in the diocese (121 of 195) indicated some form of online Sunday program, amounting to nearly 4,600 participants. Although data was collected for the first time only in 2023, it’s reasonable to assume that this figure may have been even higher in 2020 when in-person worship wasn’t permitted. This statistic is nothing short of remarkable, especially as it is corroborated by an increase in the number of regular identifiable givers. The online worship community represents about 25 per cent of all those gathered on a given Sunday in our diocese. The number of givers has increased by more than 10 per cent.

The narrative of decline in the Church is nothing new. Data from nearly every church-based and secular source, be it General Synod, Statistics Canada, the Church of England’s statistics office or The Episcopal Church, indicate that membership, worship attendance and giving have been trending downward for decades. Our own records show that the trend here began in 1966. That is why the last two years of data are so interesting. Two consecutive years of growth is unrivalled in the last half century. To be clear, not every parish is growing, and some remain in a perilous state. But this level of growth is worth acknowledging.

At our Synod in 2005, Archbishop Colin Johnson challenged every parish in the diocese to grow by 2 per cent. He was well aware that the trend across the Canadian Church at the time was a 2 per cent annual decline in membership. To reverse this pattern and make up for the initial decline, we would actually need to grow by 4 per cent. This was no small feat, for while the Anglican Church has historically been a missionary church, it is alien to generations of churchgoers today. Gone are the days when you could simply build a church and expect that people would come. Today, if you want your church to grow, you must be determined to welcome and invite people.

It’s interesting that in the span of two years, Sunday attendance and the number of donors to the Church in our diocese have increased at a pace unrivaled in the last 50 years. In his book Outliers, Canadian author Malcolm Gladwell makes the point that small changes can have significant impacts. His book covers a myriad of interesting phenomena, including how the amount of practice time devoted to an instrument affects one’s level of proficiency, or how a birth date later in the year affects the draft status of an aspiring hockey player. We see the same with our pandemic response, and our continued support. The latter is especially critical, given that so many other churches have simply returned to the pre-pandemic pattern of doing church. In their case, most have experienced a continued decline in membership and participation.

In 2021, Canon Janet Marshall, director of Congregational Development, asked a significant question when we were planning our Tending the Soul series of online forums: “Ten years from now, when we look back at our experience, will it have changed us?” Certainly, within five years it has. I am relatively confident that had we not taken the steps we did in the spring of 2020, we would have nothing new to talk about, and the narrative of decline would continue to occupy our attention.

Will we continue to see growth, or have we plateaued? It all comes down to evangelization. It seems appropriate in our high-tech age that online ministry should play a role in engaging seekers, the curious or church shoppers. Interestingly, online worship is probably the least invasive form of Christian salesmanship. It does not involve street preaching, door-to-door proselytizing or even asking a neighbour to join you at church, yet it allows the Church to be on full display in all its glory or awkwardness, right on a computer screen.

In six months, I will get my hands on the 2025 returns. As the unofficial diocesan stats wonk, I can hardly wait.